Sydvest 0–1 VSK Århus: Result & Stats

Sydvest

FT

0 – 1

VSK Århus

R. F. Hansen 66'

9/12/2020

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3BankParken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sydvest33%

×Draw28%

VSK Århus39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydvestExpected goals in this matchVSK Århus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.20

Sydvest

1.08

VSK Århus

1.20

VSK Århus creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

1.05

creates per match

1.14

1.26

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Sydvest

1.05

VSK Århus

1.14

allows per match

Sydvest

1.26

VSK Århus

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par

VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

VSK Århus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw

61%

Sydvest or VSK Århus

72%

Draw or VSK Århus

67%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+

13%

VSK Århus wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals

66%

Sydvest 2+ goals

29%

Sydvest 3+ goals

10%

VSK Århus 1+ goals

70%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

34%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)

46%

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.05 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Sydvest defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sydvest scores more

33%

level

28%

VSK Århus scores more

39%

VSK Århus at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

J. Green-Pedersen

66'

R. F. Hansen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff