Sydvest 3–1 Vejgaard B: Result & Stats

Sydvest

FT

3 – 1

Vejgaard B

9/28/2019

League #123 · Group 2 - 10BankParken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sydvest55%

×Draw21%

Vejgaard B25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydvestExpected goals in this matchVejgaard B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.38

Sydvest

2.14

Vejgaard B

1.38

Sydvest creates 55% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.78

creates per match

0.75

2.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Sydvest

1.78

Vejgaard B

0.75

allows per match

Sydvest

2.00

Vejgaard B

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par

Vejgaard B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

Vejgaard B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw

75%

Sydvest or Vejgaard B

79%

Draw or Vejgaard B

45%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+

33%

Vejgaard B wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals

88%

Sydvest 2+ goals

63%

Sydvest 3+ goals

36%

Vejgaard B 1+ goals

75%

Vejgaard B 2+ goals

40%

Vejgaard B 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)

69%

Vejgaard B (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Vejgaard B away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.78 + Vejgaard B defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.14

Vejgaard B attack 0.75 + Sydvest defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sydvest scores more

55%

level

21%

Vejgaard B scores more

25%

Sydvest at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sydvest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff