Sydvest 0–1 Thisted FC: Result & Stats

Sydvest

FT

0 – 1

Thisted FC

3/6/2021

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Løgumkloster Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sydvest38%

×Draw27%

Thisted FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydvestExpected goals in this matchThisted FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Sydvest

1.27

Thisted FC

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 87 away

1.06

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sydvest

1.06

Thisted FC

1.20

allows per match

Sydvest

1.17

Thisted FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par

Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

Thisted FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw

66%

Sydvest or Thisted FC

73%

Draw or Thisted FC

62%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+

17%

Thisted FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals

72%

Sydvest 2+ goals

36%

Sydvest 3+ goals

14%

Thisted FC 1+ goals

70%

Thisted FC 2+ goals

33%

Thisted FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)

53%

Thisted FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.06 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Sydvest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sydvest scores more

38%

level

27%

Thisted FC scores more

34%

Sydvest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sydvest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff