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Sydvest vs SfB-Oure — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Sydvest
Sydvest
FT
3 – 3
SfB-Oure
SfB-Oure
D. Easter 68'
M. Ittersum 38'
M. Egelund 19'
J. Harboe 79'
T. Jensen 76'
P. Herslov 36'
10/10/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7BankParken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydvest49%
×Draw24%
SfB-Oure27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydvest
1.71
SfB-Oure
1.21

Sydvest creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sydvest
1.05
SfB-Oure
1.15

allows per match

Sydvest
1.26
SfB-Oure
2.38

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par
SfB-Oure+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

SfB-Oure →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw
73%
Sydvest or SfB-Oure
76%
Draw or SfB-Oure
51%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+
26%
SfB-Oure wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals
82%
Sydvest 2+ goals
51%
Sydvest 3+ goals
24%
SfB-Oure 1+ goals
70%
SfB-Oure 2+ goals
34%
SfB-Oure 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)
64%
SfB-Oure (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

SfB-Oure away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.05 + SfB-Oure defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.71

SfB-Oure attack 1.15 + Sydvest defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sydvest scores more
49%
level
24%
SfB-Oure scores more
27%

Sydvest at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sydvest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. Egelund
36'
P. Herslov
38'
M. Ittersum
68'
D. Easter
76'
T. Jensen
79'
J. Harboe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Sydvest 3–3 SfB-Oure

Sydvest and SfB-Oure drew 3-3 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 10, 2020.

Goals: M. Egelund (19'), P. Herslov (36'), M. Ittersum (38'), D. Easter (68'), T. Jensen (76'), J. Harboe (79').

The match was played at BankParken in Tønder.