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Sydvest vs Dalum — League #123 2026

Sydvest
Sydvest
FT
3 – 2
Dalum
Dalum
11/9/2019League #123League #123 · Group 2 - 16BankParken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sydvest30%
×Draw23%
Dalum47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydvest
1.34
Dalum
1.75

Dalum creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sydvest
1.43
Dalum
1.50

allows per match

Sydvest
2.00
Dalum
1.25

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par
Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

Dalum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw
53%
Sydvest or Dalum
77%
Draw or Dalum
70%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+
13%
Dalum wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals
74%
Sydvest 2+ goals
39%
Sydvest 3+ goals
15%
Dalum 1+ goals
83%
Dalum 2+ goals
52%
Dalum 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)
39%
Dalum (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Dalum away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.43 + Dalum defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dalum attack 1.50 + Sydvest defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sydvest scores more
30%
level
23%
Dalum scores more
47%

Dalum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dalum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sydvest 3 – 2 Dalum

Sydvest beat Dalum 3-2 in League #123 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at BankParken in Tønder.