Sydney 1–0 Home United: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Sydney

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Home United

4/16/2025

AFC Cup · Semi-finalsAllianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sydney56%

×Draw21%

Home United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydneyExpected goals in this matchHome United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.31

Sydney

2.13

Home United

1.31

Sydney creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

2.33

creates per match

1.61

1.00

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Sydney

2.33

Home United

1.61

allows per match

Sydney

1.00

Home United

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par

Home United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Home United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sydney or draw

77%

Sydney or Home United

79%

Draw or Home United

44%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+

34%

Home United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals

88%

Sydney 2+ goals

63%

Sydney 3+ goals

35%

Home United 1+ goals

73%

Home United 2+ goals

38%

Home United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)

71%

Home United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Home United away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 2.33 + Home United defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.13

Home United attack 1.61 + Sydney defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sydney scores more

56%

level

21%

Home United scores more

23%

Sydney at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff