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Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners — Australia Cup 2021

Sydney
Sydneyadvanced
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
7/31/2022Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32Leichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sydney33%
×Draw27%
Central Coast Mariners41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.18
Central Coast Mariners
1.35

Central Coast Mariners creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.75
Central Coast Mariners
2.20

allows per match

Sydney
0.50
Central Coast Mariners
0.60

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
59%
Sydney or Central Coast Mariners
73%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
67%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
13%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
69%
Sydney 2+ goals
33%
Sydney 3+ goals
12%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
74%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
39%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
45%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.75 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Central Coast Mariners attack 2.20 + Sydney defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sydney scores more
33%
level
27%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
41%

Central Coast Mariners at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Sydney 3–3 Central Coast Mariners

Sydney and Central Coast Mariners drew 3-3 in Australia Cup on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney.