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Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney — A-League 2018

Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sydney
Sydney
12/6/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 7Central Coast Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Central Coast Mariners35%
×Draw24%
Sydney40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners
1.43
Sydney
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 112 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners
1.55
Sydney
1.46

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners
1.61
Sydney
1.30

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw
60%
Central Coast Mariners or Sydney
76%
Draw or Sydney
65%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
16%
Sydney wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
76%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
42%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
17%
Sydney 1+ goals
79%
Sydney 2+ goals
45%
Sydney 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
47%
Sydney (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.55 + Sydney defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sydney attack 1.46 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more
35%
level
24%
Sydney scores more
40%

Sydney at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Sydney

Sydney beat Central Coast Mariners 2-1 in A-League on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Central Coast Stadium in Gosford.