Sydney 1–1 Auckland: Result & Stats | Australia Cup

Sydney

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Auckland

8/23/2025

Australia Cup · Quarter-finalsSydney Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sydney32%

×Draw26%

Auckland42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydneyExpected goals in this matchAuckland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.42

Sydney

1.21

Auckland

1.42

Auckland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

2.33

0.50

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Sydney

1.75

Auckland

2.33

allows per match

Sydney

0.50

Auckland

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par

Auckland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Auckland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sydney or draw

58%

Sydney or Auckland

74%

Draw or Auckland

68%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+

13%

Auckland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals

70%

Sydney 2+ goals

34%

Sydney 3+ goals

12%

Auckland 1+ goals

76%

Auckland 2+ goals

41%

Auckland 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)

43%

Auckland (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Auckland away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.75 + Auckland defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Auckland attack 2.33 + Sydney defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sydney scores more

32%

level

26%

Auckland scores more

42%

Auckland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff