Sydney United 4–2 Western Sydney Wanderers

Sydney United

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Western Sydney Wanderers

J. Khoury 89'

P. Antelmi 71'

M. Sim 65'

D. Clut 23'

T. Mourdoukoutas 25'

R. Jordan 10'

9/13/2020

New South Wales NPL · Round 7Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sydney United51%

×Draw24%

Western Sydney Wanderers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney UnitedExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.17

Sydney United

1.75

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.17

Sydney United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 8 away

1.51

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sydney United

1.51

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.13

allows per match

Sydney United

1.21

Western Sydney Wanderers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney United+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney United ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sydney United or draw

74%

Sydney United or Western Sydney Wanderers

76%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers

49%

Winning margin

Sydney United wins by 2+

28%

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sydney United 1+ goals

83%

Sydney United 2+ goals

52%

Sydney United 3+ goals

25%

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

69%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

33%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sydney United (draw refunded)

67%

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney United at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 95 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney United attack 1.51 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.13 + Sydney United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sydney United scores more

51%

level

24%

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

26%

Sydney United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Jordan

23'

D. Clut↳ G. Trifiro

25'

T. Mourdoukoutas↳ F. Monge

64'

T. Maia← D. Clut

65'

M. Sim

71'

P. Antelmi↳ A. Tomelic

76'

P. Grozos← D. Pelekanos

77'

J. Khoury← J. Macdonald

89'

J. Khoury↳ P. Antelmi

90+2'

C. Gonzalez← G. Trifiro

Sydney

Western

40

Kalac

4

Al-Taay

2

Aquilina

13

⚽

Mourdouko

10

Grozos

6

A

Monge

19

⚽

Jordan

17

▼

9

7

21

1

17

4

3

11

10

⚽

▼

Clut

18

A

▼

Trifiro

8

⚽

Sim

99

▼

Macdonald

5

A

Tomelic

9

⚽A

Antelmi

Manager: Z. Kalac

64'▲T. Maia←▼D. Clut

77'▲J. Khoury←▼J. Macdonald

90+2'▲C. Gonzalez←▼G. Trifiro

Sydney United substitutes

15Maia14Khoury2Gonzalez24Ivancic23Vlastelica21Manos

76'▲P. Grozos←▼D. Pelekanos

Western Sydney Wanderers substitutes

24Grozos30Chahine22Bonanni3Natta26Lopane50Gibson