Sydney United vs North Shore Mariners — New South Wales NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Sydney United46%
North Shore Mariners30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sydney United creates 27% more chances
Season form · 95 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sydney United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sydney United at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 95 matches
North Shore Mariners away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sydney United attack 1.51 + North Shore Mariners defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71
North Shore Mariners attack 1.50 + Sydney United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Sydney United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Wollongong Wolves
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Blacktown CitySydney United
Marconi Stallions
Sydney Olympic
Mt Druitt Town
Sutherland Sharks
Manly United
Rockdale City Suns
Sydney II
Hakoah Sydney CityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sydney United host North Shore Mariners on Monday, 5 April 2021 at 06:00. The match is part of the New South Wales NPL 2026/2027 season.
Sydney United 1 – 5 North Shore Mariners
North Shore Mariners beat Sydney United 5-1 in New South Wales NPL on April 5, 2021.
Goals: M. Ruhs (2', 44'), M. Najjar (8'), J. Hollman (31', 40'), C. Payne (78' pen).
The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.