Sydney United 0–2 Macarthur: Result & Stats

Sydney United

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Macarthur

10/1/2022

Australia Cup · FinalCommBank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sydney United9%

×Draw16%

Macarthur75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney UnitedExpected goals in this matchMacarthur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

2.49

Sydney United

0.74

Macarthur

2.49

Macarthur creates 236% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

0.75

creates per match

2.73

2.25

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Sydney United

0.75

Macarthur

2.73

allows per match

Sydney United

2.25

Macarthur

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney United+0.00on par

Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney United ↓

Macarthur →

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sydney United or draw

25%

Sydney United or Macarthur

84%

Draw or Macarthur

91%

Winning margin

Sydney United wins by 2+

Macarthur wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Sydney United 1+ goals

52%

Sydney United 2+ goals

17%

Sydney United 3+ goals

Macarthur 1+ goals

92%

Macarthur 2+ goals

71%

Macarthur 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Sydney United (draw refunded)

11%

Macarthur (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sydney United at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Macarthur away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sydney United attack 0.75 + Macarthur defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Macarthur attack 2.73 + Sydney United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sydney United scores more

level

16%

Macarthur scores more

75%

Macarthur at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff