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Sydney United vs Brisbane Roar — Australia Cup 2021

Sydney United
Sydney United
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roaradvanced
8/26/2023Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 16Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sydney United12%
×Draw18%
Brisbane Roar70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney United
0.78
Brisbane Roar
2.23

Brisbane Roar creates 186% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sydney United
0.75
Brisbane Roar
2.20

allows per match

Sydney United
2.25
Brisbane Roar
0.80

finishing

Sydney United+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney United ↓

Brisbane Roar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sydney United or draw
30%
Sydney United or Brisbane Roar
82%
Draw or Brisbane Roar
88%

Winning margin

Sydney United wins by 2+
3%
Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Sydney United 1+ goals
54%
Sydney United 2+ goals
18%
Sydney United 3+ goals
4%
Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
89%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
65%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Sydney United (draw refunded)
14%
Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney United at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney United attack 0.75 + Brisbane Roar defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Brisbane Roar attack 2.20 + Sydney United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sydney United scores more
12%
level
18%
Brisbane Roar scores more
70%

Brisbane Roar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Brisbane Roar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Sydney United 0–5 Brisbane Roar

Brisbane Roar beat Sydney United 5-0 in Australia Cup on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.