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Sydney Olympic vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
6/24/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 21Belmore Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sydney Olympic41%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2136%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney Olympic
1.71
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sydney Olympic
1.55
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Sydney Olympic
1.49
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Sydney Olympic+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney Olympic ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sydney Olympic or draw
64%
Sydney Olympic or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
77%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
59%

Winning margin

Sydney Olympic wins by 2+
21%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sydney Olympic 1+ goals
82%
Sydney Olympic 2+ goals
51%
Sydney Olympic 3+ goals
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
79%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
46%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)
54%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.49 · 92 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sydney Olympic scores more
41%
level
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
36%

Sydney Olympic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sydney Olympic 3 – 1 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Sydney Olympic beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Belmore Sports Ground in Sydney.