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Sydney Olympic vs Sutherland Sharks — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
4/4/2026New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 9Belmore Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Sydney Olympic42%
×Draw24%
Sutherland Sharks33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney Olympic
1.60
Sutherland Sharks
1.39

Sydney Olympic creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sydney Olympic
1.55
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

allows per match

Sydney Olympic
1.49
Sutherland Sharks
1.65

finishing

Sydney Olympic+0.00on par
Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney Olympic ↓

Sutherland Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sydney Olympic or draw
67%
Sydney Olympic or Sutherland Sharks
76%
Draw or Sutherland Sharks
58%

Winning margin

Sydney Olympic wins by 2+
21%
Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sydney Olympic 1+ goals
80%
Sydney Olympic 2+ goals
47%
Sydney Olympic 3+ goals
22%
Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
75%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
40%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)
56%
Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.49 · 92 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sydney Olympic scores more
42%
level
24%
Sutherland Sharks scores more
33%

Sydney Olympic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney Olympic vs Sutherland Sharks

Sutherland Sharks beat Sydney Olympic 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Belmore Sports Ground.