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Sydney FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3/6/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1WIN Jubilee Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydney FC32%
×Draw25%
Ulsan Hyundai FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.31
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.55

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.15
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.62
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
57%
Sydney FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC
75%
Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC
68%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
14%
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
73%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
38%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
14%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
79%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
46%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
43%
Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.15 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Sydney FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sydney FC scores more
32%
level
25%
Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
43%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

Sydney FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on March 6, 2019.

The match was played at WIN Jubilee Oval in Carlton.