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Sydney FC U23 vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
4/21/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 12Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sydney FC U2339%
×Draw22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2139%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.83
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
61%
Sydney FC U23 or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
78%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
61%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
21%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
84%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
54%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
28%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
84%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
54%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
51%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
39%
level
22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
39%

Sydney FC U23 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sydney FC U23 0 – 1 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 beat Sydney FC U23 1-0 in New South Wales NPL on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic in Glenwood.