Sydney FC U23 0–2 UNSW: Result & Stats

Sydney FC U23

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

UNSW

N. Roberts 78'

J. Fulton 37'

3/20/2026

New South Wales NPL · Round 7Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sydney FC U2346%

×Draw23%

UNSW31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney FC U23Expected goals in this matchUNSW

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.40

Sydney FC U23

1.75

UNSW

1.40

Sydney FC U23 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 11 away

1.78

creates per match

0.82

1.98

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sydney FC U23

1.78

UNSW

0.82

allows per match

Sydney FC U23

1.98

UNSW

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

UNSW+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

UNSW →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw

69%

Sydney FC U23 or UNSW

77%

Draw or UNSW

54%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+

24%

UNSW wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals

83%

Sydney FC U23 2+ goals

52%

Sydney FC U23 3+ goals

25%

UNSW 1+ goals

75%

UNSW 2+ goals

41%

UNSW 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)

60%

UNSW (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

UNSW away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + UNSW defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

UNSW attack 0.82 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more

46%

level

23%

UNSW scores more

31%

Sydney FC U23 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

R. Farias

37'

J. Fulton

78'

N. Roberts

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff