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Sydney FC U23 vs St George City FA — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
St George City FA
St George City FA
M. France 50'
K. Petratos 90+1'
P. Ortiz 70'
P. Mitry 6'
5/1/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 8Penhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sydney FC U2338%
×Draw23%
St George City FA38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.60
St George City FA
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
St George City FA
1.22

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
St George City FA
1.42

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
St George City FA+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

St George City FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
62%
Sydney FC U23 or St George City FA
77%
Draw or St George City FA
62%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
19%
St George City FA wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
80%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
47%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
22%
St George City FA 1+ goals
80%
St George City FA 2+ goals
47%
St George City FA 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
50%
St George City FA (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

St George City FA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + St George City FA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

St George City FA attack 1.22 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
38%
level
23%
St George City FA scores more
38%

Sydney FC U23 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Mitry
50'
M. France
70'
P. Ortiz
90+1'
K. Petratos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC U23 vs St George City FA

St George City FA beat Sydney FC U23 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 1, 2024.

Goals: P. Mitry (6'), M. France (50'), P. Ortiz (70'), K. Petratos (90+1').

The match was played at Penhurst Park in Sydney.