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Sydney FC U23 vs Rockdale City Suns — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rockdale City Suns
Rockdale City Suns
8/18/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 29Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Sydney FC U2335%
×Draw22%
Rockdale City Suns43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.64
Rockdale City Suns
1.85

Rockdale City Suns creates 13% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 94 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
Rockdale City Suns
1.73

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Rockdale City Suns
1.50

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Rockdale City Suns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
57%
Sydney FC U23 or Rockdale City Suns
78%
Draw or Rockdale City Suns
65%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
17%
Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
81%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
49%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
23%
Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals
84%
Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals
55%
Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
45%
Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Rockdale City Suns away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rockdale City Suns attack 1.73 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
35%
level
22%
Rockdale City Suns scores more
43%

Rockdale City Suns at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC U23 vs Rockdale City Suns

Sydney FC U23 and Rockdale City Suns drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic in Glenwood.