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Rockdale City Suns vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Rockdale City Suns
Rockdale City Suns
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
5/18/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 15Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Rockdale City Suns48%
×Draw22%
Sydney FC U2330%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockdale City Suns
1.92
Sydney FC U23
1.49

Rockdale City Suns creates 29% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 94 away

creates per match

Rockdale City Suns
2.02
Sydney FC U23
1.56

allows per match

Rockdale City Suns
1.42
Sydney FC U23
1.82

finishing

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par
Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockdale City Suns ↓

Sydney FC U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rockdale City Suns or draw
70%
Rockdale City Suns or Sydney FC U23
78%
Draw or Sydney FC U23
52%

Winning margin

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+
27%
Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals
85%
Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals
57%
Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals
30%
Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
77%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
44%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)
61%
Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockdale City Suns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.42 · 99 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockdale City Suns attack 2.02 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rockdale City Suns scores more
48%
level
22%
Sydney FC U23 scores more
30%

Rockdale City Suns at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rockdale City Suns vs Sydney FC U23

Rockdale City Suns beat Sydney FC U23 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.