Sydney FC U23 3–2 North Shore Mariners

Sydney FC U23

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

North Shore Mariners

H. Van Der Saag 55'

J. Kucharski 52'

P. Yazbek 27'

S. De Robillard 60' (pen)

R. Jordan 37'

3/14/2021

New South Wales NPL · Round 3Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sydney FC U2341%

×Draw22%

North Shore Mariners37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney FC U23Expected goals in this matchNorth Shore Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.74

Sydney FC U23

1.84

North Shore Mariners

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 30 away

1.78

creates per match

1.50

1.98

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sydney FC U23

1.78

North Shore Mariners

1.50

allows per match

Sydney FC U23

1.98

North Shore Mariners

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

North Shore Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw

63%

Sydney FC U23 or North Shore Mariners

78%

Draw or North Shore Mariners

59%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+

22%

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals

84%

Sydney FC U23 2+ goals

55%

Sydney FC U23 3+ goals

28%

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals

82%

North Shore Mariners 2+ goals

52%

North Shore Mariners 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)

53%

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

North Shore Mariners away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + North Shore Mariners defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.84

North Shore Mariners attack 1.50 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more

41%

level

22%

North Shore Mariners scores more

37%

Sydney FC U23 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

P. Yazbek

37'

R. Jordan

46'

J. Trenkoski← A. Segecic

46'

S. De Robillard← M. Ruhs

52'

J. Kucharski↳ H. Van Der Saag

55'

H. Van Der Saag

60'

S. De RobillardPenalty

64'

B. Jauch← M. Najjar

65'

A. Mostofi← A. Saracino

65'

A. Simmons← J. Kucharski

65'

E. Caspers← J. Hollman

78'

O. Priestman← H. Van Der Saag

82'

C. Hollman← T. Main

82'

J. Mcloughlin← N. Ujdur

Sydney

North

1

13

17

3

21

7

▼

Hollman

10

⚽

Jordan

6

Sepping

26

▼

Ruhs

4

▼

Ujdur

24

▼

Najjar

30

Heward-Be

21

⚽A

▼

23

3

15

10

⚽

▼

Kucharski

6

▼

Main

11

▼

Segecic

9

▼

Saracino

8

⚽

Yazbek

27

Swibel

Manager: J. van Weeren

46'▲J. Trenkoski←▼A. Segecic

65'▲A. Mostofi←▼A. Saracino

65'▲A. Simmons←▼J. Kucharski

78'▲O. Priestman←▼H. Van Der Saag

82'▲C. Hollman←▼T. Main

Sydney FC U23 substitutes

17Trenkoski14Mostofi7Simmons18Priestman5Hollman1Kaye

Manager: M. Sterjovski

46'▲S. De Robillard←▼M. Ruhs

64'▲B. Jauch←▼M. Najjar

65'▲E. Caspers←▼J. Hollman

82'▲J. Mcloughlin←▼N. Ujdur

North Shore Mariners substitutes

11Robillard9Jauch15Caspers2Mcloughlin18Bonilla22Barry