Sydney FC U23 1–0 Hakoah Sydney City

Sydney FC U23

FT

1 – 0

Hakoah Sydney City

5/25/2019

New South Wales NPL · Round 12Lambert Park (Sydney)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sydney FC U2348%

×Draw24%

Hakoah Sydney City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney FC U23Expected goals in this matchHakoah Sydney City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

Sydney FC U23

1.71

Hakoah Sydney City

1.27

Sydney FC U23 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 11 away

1.78

creates per match

0.55

1.98

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Sydney FC U23

1.78

Hakoah Sydney City

0.55

allows per match

Sydney FC U23

1.98

Hakoah Sydney City

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw

71%

Sydney FC U23 or Hakoah Sydney City

76%

Draw or Hakoah Sydney City

52%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+

25%

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals

82%

Sydney FC U23 2+ goals

51%

Sydney FC U23 3+ goals

24%

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals

72%

Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals

36%

Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)

63%

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hakoah Sydney City attack 0.55 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more

48%

level

24%

Hakoah Sydney City scores more

29%

Sydney FC U23 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff