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Sydney FC U23 vs Blacktown City — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blacktown City
Blacktown City
4/19/2026New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 11Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Sydney FC U2334%
×Draw23%
Blacktown City43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.60
Blacktown City
1.82

Blacktown City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
Blacktown City
1.67

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Blacktown City
1.43

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
Blacktown City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Blacktown City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
57%
Sydney FC U23 or Blacktown City
77%
Draw or Blacktown City
66%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
17%
Blacktown City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
80%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
47%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
22%
Blacktown City 1+ goals
84%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
54%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
44%
Blacktown City (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Blacktown City away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Blacktown City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.60

Blacktown City attack 1.67 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
34%
level
23%
Blacktown City scores more
43%

Blacktown City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC U23 vs Blacktown City

Sydney FC U23 and Blacktown City drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre in Sydney.