SWQ Thunder 0–5 Southside Eagles: Result & Stats

SWQ Thunder

FT

0 – 5

Southside Eagles

4/30/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 8Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

SWQ Thunder53%

×Draw21%

Southside Eagles26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SWQ ThunderExpected goals in this matchSouthside Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.42

SWQ Thunder

2.09

Southside Eagles

1.42

SWQ Thunder creates 47% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

1.98

creates per match

1.26

1.58

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

SWQ Thunder

1.98

Southside Eagles

1.26

allows per match

SWQ Thunder

1.58

Southside Eagles

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Southside Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw

74%

SWQ Thunder or Southside Eagles

79%

Draw or Southside Eagles

47%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+

31%

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals

88%

SWQ Thunder 2+ goals

62%

SWQ Thunder 3+ goals

34%

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

76%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

41%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)

67%

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.09

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more

53%

level

21%

Southside Eagles scores more

26%

SWQ Thunder at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff