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Southside Eagles vs SWQ Thunder — Queensland Premier League 2026

Southside Eagles
Southside Eagles
FT
0 – 4
SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
7/29/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 19Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Southside Eagles42%
×Draw21%
SWQ Thunder36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southside Eagles
1.98
SWQ Thunder
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 56 away

creates per match

Southside Eagles
1.58
SWQ Thunder
1.77

allows per match

Southside Eagles
1.87
SWQ Thunder
2.38

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par
SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

SWQ Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw
64%
Southside Eagles or SWQ Thunder
79%
Draw or SWQ Thunder
58%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+
23%
SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals
86%
Southside Eagles 2+ goals
59%
Southside Eagles 3+ goals
31%
SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
84%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
54%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)
54%
SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + SWQ Thunder defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.98

SWQ Thunder attack 1.77 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Southside Eagles scores more
42%
level
21%
SWQ Thunder scores more
36%

Southside Eagles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Southside Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Southside Eagles 0–4 SWQ Thunder

SWQ Thunder beat Southside Eagles 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Memorial Park in Brisbane.