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SWQ Thunder vs Logan Lightning — Queensland Premier League 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
7/12/2025Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 17Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SWQ Thunder46%
×Draw21%
Logan Lightning33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
2.04
Logan Lightning
1.71

SWQ Thunder creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 44 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Logan Lightning
1.84

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Logan Lightning
2.09

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
67%
SWQ Thunder or Logan Lightning
79%
Draw or Logan Lightning
54%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
26%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
87%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
60%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
33%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
82%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
51%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
58%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.04

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
46%
level
21%
Logan Lightning scores more
33%

SWQ Thunder at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: SWQ Thunder 1–1 Logan Lightning

SWQ Thunder and Logan Lightning drew 1-1 in Queensland Premier League on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.