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SWQ Thunder vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland Premier League 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
Unknown 66', 59'
Unknown 53'
6/22/2025Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 15Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

SWQ Thunder39%
×Draw21%
Brisbane Strikers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
1.90
Brisbane Strikers
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 55 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Brisbane Strikers
2.29

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Brisbane Strikers
1.82

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
60%
SWQ Thunder or Brisbane Strikers
79%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
61%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
20%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
85%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
56%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
29%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
86%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
58%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
49%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.90

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
39%
level
21%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
40%

Brisbane Strikers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
59'
66'
78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SWQ Thunder vs Brisbane Strikers

SWQ Thunder beat Brisbane Strikers 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on June 22, 2025.

Goals: ? (53', 59', 66').

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.