Switzerland W 0–3 Austria W: Result & Stats

Switzerland W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Austria W

N. Billa 74'

L. Feiersinger 68'

L. Kolb 64'

2/23/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Switzerland W25%

×Draw23%

Austria W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland WExpected goals in this matchAustria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.88

Switzerland W

1.25

Austria W

1.88

Austria W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

1.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Switzerland W

1.00

Austria W

2.00

allows per match

Switzerland W

1.75

Austria W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland W+0.00on par

Austria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland W ↓

Austria W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Switzerland W or draw

48%

Switzerland W or Austria W

77%

Draw or Austria W

75%

Winning margin

Switzerland W wins by 2+

10%

Austria W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Switzerland W 1+ goals

71%

Switzerland W 2+ goals

36%

Switzerland W 3+ goals

13%

Austria W 1+ goals

85%

Austria W 2+ goals

56%

Austria W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Switzerland W (draw refunded)

33%

Austria W (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Austria W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland W attack 1.00 + Austria W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Austria W attack 2.00 + Switzerland W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Switzerland W scores more

25%

level

23%

Austria W scores more

52%

Austria W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Austria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

V. Calligaris

45'

L. Kolb← L. Kolb

46'

S. Li Puma← S. Li Puma

46'

T. Hurni← T. Hurni

46'

E. Bachmann← E. Bachmann

62'

L. Feiersinger← L. Feiersinger

64'

L. Kolb

66'

←

68'

L. Feiersinger

74'

N. Billa

74'

V. Calligaris

74'

V. Calligaris

76'

S. Enzinger← S. Enzinger

80'

R. Bachmann← S. Da Eira

85'

K. Wienerroither← K. Wienerroither

85'

J. Magerl← J. Magerl

85'

A. Schasching← A. Schasching

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff