Switzerland 1–2 Türkiye: Result & Stats

Switzerland

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Türkiye

H. Yakin 32'

A. Turan 90'

S. Sentürk 57'

6/11/2008

Euro Championship · Group stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Switzerland45%

×Draw25%

Türkiye30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchTürkiye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Switzerland

1.60

Türkiye

1.27

Switzerland creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

2.13

creates per match

1.67

0.88

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Switzerland

2.13

Türkiye

1.67

allows per match

Switzerland

0.88

Türkiye

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Türkiye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

70%

Switzerland or Türkiye

75%

Draw or Türkiye

55%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

23%

Türkiye wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

80%

Switzerland 2+ goals

47%

Switzerland 3+ goals

22%

Türkiye 1+ goals

72%

Türkiye 2+ goals

36%

Türkiye 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

60%

Türkiye (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.13 + Türkiye defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Türkiye attack 1.67 + Switzerland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Switzerland scores more

45%

level

25%

Türkiye scores more

30%

Switzerland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

H. Yakin

45'

M. Topal← T. Metin

45'

S. Sentürk← G. Karadeniz

57'

S. Sentürk

66'

J. Vonlanthen← T. Barnetta

76'

R. Cabanas← G. Fernandes

85'

D. Gygax← H. Yakin

85'

C. Kazim-Richards← N. Kahveci

90'

A. Turan

Switzerland

Türkiye

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

66'▲J. Vonlanthen←▼T. Barnetta

76'▲R. Cabanas←▼G. Fernandes

85'▲D. Gygax←▼H. Yakin

Switzerland substitutes

VonlanthenCabanasGygax

45'▲M. Topal←▼T. Metin

45'▲S. Sentürk←▼G. Karadeniz

85'▲C. Kazim-Richards←▼N. Kahveci

Türkiye substitutes

TopalSentürkKazim-Richards