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Switzerland vs Panama — Friendlies 2026

Switzerland
Switzerland
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Panama
Panama
F. Frei 68'
M. Gavranović 49'
S. Zuber 39'
B. Embolo 33'
G. Xhaka 31' (pen)
B. Džemaili 22'
3/27/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Switzerland70%
×Draw17%
Panama13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland
2.44
Panama
0.94

Switzerland creates 160% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Switzerland
2.67
Panama
0.80

allows per match

Switzerland
1.07
Panama
2.20

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par
Panama+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Panama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw
87%
Switzerland or Panama
83%
Draw or Panama
30%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+
47%
Panama wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals
91%
Switzerland 2+ goals
70%
Switzerland 3+ goals
43%
Panama 1+ goals
61%
Panama 2+ goals
24%
Panama 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)
85%
Panama (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Panama away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.67 + Panama defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Panama attack 0.80 + Switzerland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Switzerland scores more
70%
level
17%
Panama scores more
13%

Switzerland at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
B. Džemaili↳ M. Gavranović
31'
G. XhakaPenalty
33'
B. Embolo
34'
E. Bárcenas← M. Camargo
39'
S. Zuber
46'
R. Freuler← B. Embolo
46'
J. Drmic← B. Džemaili
46'
A. Quintero← M. Murillo
46'
R. Nurse← G. Torres
46'
A. Cooper← R. Avila
49'
M. Gavranović↳ S. Zuber
56'
Édgar Barcenas
58'
H. Seferović← M. Gavranović
58'
F. Frei← G. Fernandes
68'
F. Frei↳ J. Drmic
69'
F. Schär← G. Xhaka
69'
S. Lichtsteiner← M. Lang

Possession

59%Switzerland

Shots

12Switzerland

Statistics

SwitzerlandPanama
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots3
2Corners2
18Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots3
9On Target2
3Off Target1
Passing
59%Possession41%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Friendlies: Switzerland 6–0 Panama

Switzerland beat Panama 6-0 in Friendlies on March 27, 2018.

Goals: B. Džemaili (22'), G. Xhaka (31' pen), B. Embolo (33'), S. Zuber (39'), M. Gavranović (49'), F. Frei (68').

Switzerland controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 3.

The match was played at Swissporarena in Lucerne.