Switzerland 3–1 Luxembourg: Result & Stats

Switzerland

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Luxembourg

Miro Muheim 29'

Breel Embolo 12' (pen)

Ruben Vargas 9'

Danel Sinani 89' (pen)

3/25/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Switzerland67%

×Draw20%

Luxembourg13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.81

Switzerland

2.11

Luxembourg

0.81

Switzerland creates 160% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

2.67

creates per match

0.55

1.07

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Switzerland

2.67

Luxembourg

0.55

allows per match

Switzerland

1.07

Luxembourg

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

87%

Switzerland or Luxembourg

80%

Draw or Luxembourg

33%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

43%

Luxembourg wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

88%

Switzerland 2+ goals

62%

Switzerland 3+ goals

35%

Luxembourg 1+ goals

56%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

19%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

83%

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.67 + Luxembourg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.11

Luxembourg attack 0.55 + Switzerland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Switzerland scores more

67%

level

20%

Luxembourg scores more

13%

Switzerland at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Miro Muheim

Switzerland · M

9.2

Match Events

9'

Ruben Vargas↳ Miro Muheim

12'

Breel EmboloPenalty

29'

Miro Muheim↳ Ruben Vargas

46'

Michel Aebischer← Vincent Sierro

46'

Denis Zakaria← Stefan Gartenmann

46'

Albian Hajdari← Ricardo Rodríguez

46'

Gerson Rodrigues← Tomas de Sousa Moreira

46'

Tiago Pereira Cardoso← Anthony Moris

46'

Florian Bohnert← Laurent Jans

59'

Alessio Curci← Vincent Thill

59'

Yvandro Borges Sanches← Brian Madjo

63'

Danel Sinani

66'

Isaac Schmidt← Lucas Blondel

66'

Fabian Rieder← Dan Ndoye

75'

Mathias Olesen← Gerson Rodrigues

82'

Aurèle Amenda← Ruben Vargas

87'

Aurèle Amenda

89'

Eray Cömert

89'

Danel SinaniPenalty

89'

Mathias Olesen

90+4'

Marvin Martins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwitzerlandLuxembourg

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots9

9Corners6

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots9

7On Target2

2Off Target5

4Blocked2

11Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

495Total Passes393

428Accurate Passes342

86%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Friendlies: Switzerland 3–1 Luxembourg

Switzerland beat Luxembourg 3-1 in Friendlies on March 25, 2025.

Goals: Ruben Vargas (9'), Breel Embolo (12' pen), Miro Muheim (29'), Danel Sinani (89' pen).

Switzerland controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.

Switzerland vs Luxembourg — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Switzerland 3–1 Luxembourg