Switzerland 2–0 Japan: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Switzerland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Japan

H. Seferović 82'

R. Rodríguez 42' (pen)

6/8/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Switzerland61%

×Draw23%

Japan16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchJapan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.74

Switzerland

1.73

Japan

0.74

Switzerland creates 134% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

2.67

creates per match

0.40

1.07

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Switzerland

2.67

Japan

0.40

allows per match

Switzerland

1.07

Japan

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Japan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Japan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

84%

Switzerland or Japan

77%

Draw or Japan

39%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

35%

Japan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

82%

Switzerland 2+ goals

52%

Switzerland 3+ goals

25%

Japan 1+ goals

52%

Japan 2+ goals

17%

Japan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

80%

Japan (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Japan away — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.67 + Japan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Japan attack 0.40 + Switzerland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Switzerland scores more

61%

level

23%

Japan scores more

16%

Switzerland at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Valon Behrami

40'

Y. Muto← Y. Ōsako

42'

R. RodríguezPenalty

46'

N. Elvedi← M. Akanji

55'

T. Inui← T. Usami

56'

H. Sakai← G. Sakai

64'

H. Seferović← M. Gavranović

64'

S. Zuber← B. Embolo

64'

B. Džemaili← R. Freuler

70'

G. Shibasaki← R. Oshima

73'

F. Moubandje← R. Rodríguez

74'

Gaku Shibasaki

77'

S. Kagawa← K. Honda

78'

Makoto Hasebe

82'

H. Seferović↳ F. Moubandje

83'

J. Drmic← X. Shaqiri

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SwitzerlandJapan

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots7

3Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots7

2On Target5

5Off Target2

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1