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Switzerland vs Italy — Euro Championship 2024

Switzerland
Switzerlandadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Italy
Italy
R. Vargas 46'
R. Freuler 37'
6/29/2024Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Round of 16Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Switzerland35%
×Draw25%
Italy41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland
1.39
Italy
1.53

Italy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Switzerland
2.13
Italy
2.18

allows per match

Switzerland
0.88
Italy
0.64

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par
Italy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Italy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw
59%
Switzerland or Italy
75%
Draw or Italy
65%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+
16%
Italy wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals
75%
Switzerland 2+ goals
40%
Switzerland 3+ goals
16%
Italy 1+ goals
78%
Italy 2+ goals
45%
Italy 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)
46%
Italy (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Italy away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.13 + Italy defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Italy attack 2.18 + Switzerland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Switzerland scores more
35%
level
25%
Italy scores more
41%

Italy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
R. VargasSwitzerlandSwitzerland · F
8.3

Match Events

35'
Nicolò Barella
37'
R. Freuler↳ R. Vargas
45'
Stephan El Shaarawy
46'
M. Zaccagni← S. El Shaarawy
46'
R. Vargas↳ M. Aebischer
57'
Gianluca Mancini
64'
M. Retegui← N. Barella
71'
S. Zuber← R. Vargas
71'
L. Stergiou← F. Rieder
75'
L. Pellegrini← B. Cristante
75'
A. Cambiaso← M. Darmian
77'
K. Duah← B. Embolo
77'
V. Sierro← D. Ndoye
86'
D. Frattesi← N. Fagioli
90+2'
R. Steffen← M. Aebischer

Possession

49%Switzerland

Shots

16Switzerland

Pass accuracy

51%Switzerland

Statistics

SwitzerlandItaly
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots11
1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.73
4Corners6
9Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots11
4On Target1
5Off Target7
7Blocked3
8Inside Box4
8Outside Box7
Passing
49%Possession51%
513Total Passes520
470Accurate Passes455
92%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.14Goals Prevented0.14
Discipline
9Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Switzerland vs Italy

Switzerland beat Italy 2-0 in Euro Championship on June 29, 2024.

Goals: R. Freuler (37'), R. Vargas (46').

Italy controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.