Switzerland 6–0 Iceland: Result & Stats

Switzerland

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Iceland

Admir Mehmedi 82'

Albian Ajeti 71'

Haris Seferović 67'

Xherdan Shaqiri 53'

Denis Zakaria 23'

Steven Zuber 13'

9/8/2018

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Switzerland68%

×Draw18%

Iceland14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.04

Switzerland

2.46

Iceland

1.04

Switzerland creates 137% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.09

creates per match

0.91

1.18

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Switzerland

2.09

Iceland

0.91

allows per match

Switzerland

1.18

Iceland

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

86%

Switzerland or Iceland

82%

Draw or Iceland

32%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

46%

Iceland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

91%

Switzerland 2+ goals

70%

Switzerland 3+ goals

44%

Iceland 1+ goals

65%

Iceland 2+ goals

28%

Iceland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

83%

Iceland (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.09 + Iceland defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.46

Iceland attack 0.91 + Switzerland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Switzerland scores more

68%

level

18%

Iceland scores more

14%

Switzerland at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Fabian Schär

13'

Steven Zuber↳ Ricardo Rodríguez

23'

Denis Zakaria↳ Fabian Schär

32'

Breel Embolo

52'

Ragnar Sigurðsson

53'

Xherdan Shaqiri

60'

Viðar Örn Kjartansson← Björn Sigurðarson

65'

Albian Ajeti← Breel Embolo

65'

Elmar Bjarnason← Birkir Bjarnason

67'

Haris Seferović↳ Fabian Schär

71'

Albian Ajeti↳ Haris Seferović

72'

Admir Mehmedi← Haris Seferović

74'

Rúnar Már Sigurjónsson← Rúrik Gíslason

79'

Djibril Sow← Steven Zuber

82'

Admir Mehmedi↳ Denis Zakaria

82'

Granit Xhaka

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SwitzerlandIceland

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots2

4Corners1

15Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots2

8On Target1

9Off Target1

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

7Offsides0