Switzerland 4–0 Gibraltar: Result & Stats

Switzerland

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gibraltar

M. Gavranović 87'

R. Rodríguez 45+3'

A. Mehmedi 43'

D. Zakaria 37'

9/8/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Switzerland87%

×Draw10%

Gibraltar3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchGibraltar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

0.44

Switzerland

2.94

Gibraltar

0.44

Switzerland creates 568% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.13

creates per match

0.00

0.88

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

Switzerland

2.13

Gibraltar

0.00

allows per match

Switzerland

0.88

Gibraltar

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Gibraltar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Gibraltar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–17%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

97%

Switzerland or Gibraltar

90%

Draw or Gibraltar

13%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

68%

Gibraltar wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

95%

Switzerland 2+ goals

79%

Switzerland 3+ goals

55%

Gibraltar 1+ goals

36%

Gibraltar 2+ goals

7%

Gibraltar 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

96%

Gibraltar (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Gibraltar away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.13 + Gibraltar defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.94

Gibraltar attack 0.00 + Switzerland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Switzerland scores more

87%

level

10%

Gibraltar scores more

3%

Switzerland at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Zakaria

Switzerland · M

8.8

Match Events

25'

K. Goldwin← D. Coleing

37'

D. Zakaria↳ G. Xhaka

43'

A. Mehmedi↳ F. Schär

45+3'

R. Rodríguez

55'

M. Gavranović← B. Embolo

58'

J. Coombes← Andrew Hernandez

65'

R. Steffen← L. Benito

67'

69'

74'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwitzerlandGibraltar

Overview

76%Possession24%

40Total Shots2

22Corners0

10Fouls7

Shots

40Total Shots2

11On Target0

20Off Target2

9Blocked0

26Inside Box0

14Outside Box2

Passing

76%Possession24%

611Total Passes198

536Accurate Passes100

88%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1