Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Switzerland vs Estonia — Friendlies 2026

Switzerland
Switzerland
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Estonia
Estonia
X. Shaqiri 70' (pen)
N. Elvedi 63'
Z. Amdouni 47'
S. Zuber 20'
6/4/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Switzerland64%
×Draw20%
Estonia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland
2.07
Estonia
0.92

Switzerland creates 125% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Switzerland
2.67
Estonia
0.76

allows per match

Switzerland
1.07
Estonia
1.47

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par
Estonia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Estonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw
84%
Switzerland or Estonia
80%
Draw or Estonia
36%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+
40%
Estonia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals
87%
Switzerland 2+ goals
61%
Switzerland 3+ goals
34%
Estonia 1+ goals
60%
Estonia 2+ goals
23%
Estonia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)
80%
Estonia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Estonia away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.67 + Estonia defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.07

Estonia attack 0.76 + Switzerland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Switzerland scores more
64%
level
20%
Estonia scores more
16%

Switzerland at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
X. ShaqiriSwitzerlandSwitzerland · F
8.2

Match Events

20'
S. Zuber
46'
V. Sierro← R. Freuler
46'
Z. Amdouni← K. Duah
46'
R. Vargas← S. Zuber
47'
Z. Amdouni↳ R. Vargas
61'
F. Rieder← D. Ndoye
61'
L. Stergiou← S. Widmer
61'
R. Shein← M. Ainsalu
63'
N. Elvedi
67'
Markus Poom
70'
X. ShaqiriPenalty
73'
E. Tur← M. Vetkal
73'
H. Anier← M. Lepik
74'
M. Aebischer← G. Xhaka
81'
K. Vassiljev← M. Miller
81'
A. Tamm← K. Hussar
86'
K. Palumets← M. Poom

Possession

68%Switzerland

Shots

16Switzerland

Pass accuracy

54%Switzerland

Statistics

SwitzerlandEstonia
Overview
68%Possession32%
16Total Shots10
4Corners4
4Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots10
9On Target3
3Off Target4
4Blocked3
10Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
68%Possession32%
706Total Passes317
625Accurate Passes242
89%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
4Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Friendlies: Switzerland 4–0 Estonia

Switzerland beat Estonia 4-0 in Friendlies on June 4, 2024.

Goals: S. Zuber (20'), Z. Amdouni (47'), N. Elvedi (63'), X. Shaqiri (70' pen).

Switzerland controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at swissporarena in Luzern.