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Switzerland vs Costa Rica — World Cup 2026

Switzerland
Switzerland
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
J. Drmic 88'
B. Džemaili 31'
Y. Sommer 90+3' (OG)
K. Waston 56'
6/27/2018World CupWorld Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Switzerland74%
×Draw16%
Costa Rica10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland
2.48
Costa Rica
0.78

Switzerland creates 218% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Switzerland
2.20
Costa Rica
0.75

allows per match

Switzerland
0.80
Costa Rica
2.75

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par
Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Costa Rica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw
90%
Switzerland or Costa Rica
84%
Draw or Costa Rica
26%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+
52%
Costa Rica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals
92%
Switzerland 2+ goals
70%
Switzerland 3+ goals
44%
Costa Rica 1+ goals
54%
Costa Rica 2+ goals
18%
Costa Rica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)
88%
Costa Rica (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Costa Rica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.20 + Costa Rica defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Costa Rica attack 0.75 + Switzerland defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Switzerland scores more
74%
level
16%
Costa Rica scores more
10%

Switzerland at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. XhakaSwitzerlandSwitzerland · M
7.6

Match Events

11'
Cristian Gamboa
29'
Joel Campbell
31'
B. Džemaili↳ B. Embolo
37'
Stephan Lichtsteiner
56'
K. Waston↳ J. Campbell
60'
D. Zakaria← V. Behrami
69'
J. Drmic← M. Gavranović
75'
Denis Zakaria
81'
M. Lang← X. Shaqiri
81'
R. Wallace← D. Colindres
83'
Fabian Schär
88'
J. Drmic↳ D. Zakaria
89'
Kendall Waston
90+3'
I. Smith← C. Gamboa
90+1'
R. Azofeifa← D. Guzmán
90+3'
Y. SommerOwn goal

Possession

62%Switzerland

Shots

13Switzerland

Pass accuracy

52%Switzerland

Statistics

SwitzerlandCosta
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots14
6Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots14
3On Target6
6Off Target6
4Blocked2
8Inside Box9
5Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
565Total Passes341
489Accurate Passes268
87%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Switzerland vs Costa Rica

Switzerland and Costa Rica drew 2-2 in World Cup on June 27, 2018.

Goals: B. Džemaili (31'), K. Waston (56'), J. Drmic (88'), Y. Sommer (90+3' o.g.).

Switzerland controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.