Switzerland 1–1 Austria: Result & Stats

Switzerland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Austria

S. Widmer 26'

C. Baumgartner 5'

6/8/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Switzerland44%

×Draw24%

Austria31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.32

Switzerland

1.62

Austria

1.32

Switzerland creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

1.57

1.07

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Switzerland

2.67

Austria

1.57

allows per match

Switzerland

1.07

Austria

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

69%

Switzerland or Austria

76%

Draw or Austria

56%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

23%

Austria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

80%

Switzerland 2+ goals

48%

Switzerland 3+ goals

22%

Austria 1+ goals

73%

Austria 2+ goals

38%

Austria 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

59%

Austria (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Austria away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.67 + Austria defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Austria attack 1.57 + Switzerland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Switzerland scores more

44%

level

24%

Austria scores more

31%

Switzerland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

S. Widmer

Switzerland · M

7.5

Match Events

5'

C. Baumgartner↳ F. Kainz

26'

S. Widmer

42'

M. Aebischer← S. Zuber

46'

F. Grillitsch← C. Baumgartner

46'

P. Wimmer← F. Kainz

46'

S. Posch← F. Daniliuc

57'

Granit Xhaka

66'

N. Okafor← R. Vargas

67'

X. Shaqiri← Z. Amdouni

67'

M. Wöber← P. Lienhart

67'

K. Danso← G. Trauner

76'

C. Zesiger← R. Rodríguez

76'

L. Stergiou← M. Akanji

76'

76'

79'

82'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwitzerlandAustria

Overview

58%Possession42%

4Total Shots11

3Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

4Total Shots11

2On Target3

1Off Target2

1Blocked6

2Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

560Total Passes409

488Accurate Passes344

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Friendlies: Switzerland 1–1 Austria

Switzerland and Austria drew 1-1 in Friendlies on June 8, 2024.

Goals: C. Baumgartner (5'), S. Widmer (26').

Switzerland controlled possession (58%) and registered 4 shots to 11.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.

Switzerland vs Austria — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Switzerland 1–1 Austria