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Switzerland U21 vs Estonia U21 — League #850 2026

Switzerland U21
Switzerland U21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Estonia U21
Estonia U21
3/31/2026League #850League #850

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Switzerland U2166%
×Draw19%
Estonia U2114%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland U21
2.17
Estonia U21
0.90

Switzerland U21 creates 141% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Switzerland U21
1.00
Estonia U21
1.00

allows per match

Switzerland U21
0.80
Estonia U21
3.33

finishing

Switzerland U21+0.00on par
Estonia U21+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U21 ↓

Estonia U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Switzerland U21 or draw
86%
Switzerland U21 or Estonia U21
81%
Draw or Estonia U21
34%

Winning margin

Switzerland U21 wins by 2+
42%
Estonia U21 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Switzerland U21 1+ goals
89%
Switzerland U21 2+ goals
64%
Switzerland U21 3+ goals
36%
Estonia U21 1+ goals
59%
Estonia U21 2+ goals
23%
Estonia U21 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U21 (draw refunded)
82%
Estonia U21 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Estonia U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U21 attack 1.00 + Estonia U21 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Estonia U21 attack 1.00 + Switzerland U21 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Switzerland U21 scores more
66%
level
19%
Estonia U21 scores more
14%

Switzerland U21 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Switzerland U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Switzerland U21 vs Estonia U21

Switzerland U21 beat Estonia U21 2-1 in League #850 on March 31, 2026.