Switzerland U19 1–2 Sweden U19: Result & Stats

Switzerland U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sweden U19

B. Fink 70'

M. Björkqvist 90+1'

A. Qasem 45+2'

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Switzerland U1937%

×Draw24%

Sweden U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.51

Switzerland U19

1.49

Sweden U19

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.27

creates per match

1.29

1.73

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Switzerland U19

1.27

Sweden U19

1.29

allows per match

Switzerland U19

1.73

Sweden U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Switzerland U19 or draw

62%

Switzerland U19 or Sweden U19

76%

Draw or Sweden U19

63%

Winning margin

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

18%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

77%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

44%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

19%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

78%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

44%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U19 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U19 attack 1.27 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Switzerland U19 scores more

37%

level

24%

Sweden U19 scores more

38%

Sweden U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

A. Qasem

46'

T. Mühlethaler← N. Muci

57'

M. Reichmuth← F. De Carvalho Ferreira

68'

E. Andersson← O. Vilhelmsson

70'

B. Fink

71'

M. Björkqvist← Y. Ayari

73'

A. Appiah← C. Chiappetta

82'

A. Karlin← W. Swedberg

82'

J. Erabi← A. Qasem

88'

M. Willimann← N. Rupp

90+1'

M. Björkqvist

Switzerland

Sweden

12

3

4

2

5

6

11

⚽

▼

Qasem

10

▼

Ayari

16

▼

Swedberg

7

Roback

20

▼

1

4

5

20

3

10

▼

Rupp

19

Schwegler

9

⚽

Fink

11

▼

Chiappett

17

▼

Ferreira

13

▼

Muci

Manager: B. Berner

46'▲T. Mühlethaler←▼N. Muci

57'▲M. Reichmuth←▼F. De Carvalho Ferreira

73'▲A. Appiah←▼C. Chiappetta

88'▲M. Willimann←▼N. Rupp

Switzerland U19 substitutes

18Mühlethaler8Reichmuth7Appiah6Willimann14Hasani15Sow16Bollati2Magnin12Nitti

Manager: M. Jelečak

68'▲E. Andersson←▼O. Vilhelmsson

71'▲M. Björkqvist←▼Y. Ayari

82'▲A. Karlin←▼W. Swedberg

82'▲J. Erabi←▼A. Qasem

Sweden U19 substitutes

19Andersson8Björkqvist18Karlin9Erabi14Engdahl13Mattsson1Ellborg17Amoran15Bonde