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Switzerland U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Switzerland U19
Switzerland U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Spain U19
Spain U19
10/16/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Switzerland U1916%
×Draw20%
Spain U1964%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland U19
0.97
Spain U19
2.16

Spain U19 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Switzerland U19
1.25
Spain U19
2.81

allows per match

Switzerland U19
1.50
Spain U19
0.69

finishing

Switzerland U19+0.00on par
Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U19 ↓

Spain U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Switzerland U19 or draw
36%
Switzerland U19 or Spain U19
80%
Draw or Spain U19
84%

Winning margin

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+
5%
Spain U19 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Switzerland U19 1+ goals
62%
Switzerland U19 2+ goals
25%
Switzerland U19 3+ goals
7%
Spain U19 1+ goals
88%
Spain U19 2+ goals
63%
Spain U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)
20%
Spain U19 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U19 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.81, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U19 attack 1.25 + Spain U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.97

Spain U19 attack 2.81 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Switzerland U19 scores more
16%
level
20%
Spain U19 scores more
64%

Spain U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: Switzerland U19 1–2 Spain U19

Spain U19 beat Switzerland U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 16, 2018.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.