Switzerland U19 0–2 Greece U19: Result & Stats

Switzerland U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Greece U19

G. Koutsias 85'

N. Spyrakos 21'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Centre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Switzerland U1927%

×Draw24%

Greece U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland U19Expected goals in this matchGreece U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.70

Switzerland U19

1.18

Greece U19

1.70

Greece U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.27

creates per match

1.67

1.73

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Switzerland U19

1.27

Greece U19

1.67

allows per match

Switzerland U19

1.73

Greece U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Greece U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U19 ↓

Greece U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Switzerland U19 or draw

51%

Switzerland U19 or Greece U19

76%

Draw or Greece U19

73%

Winning margin

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

11%

Greece U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

69%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

33%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

12%

Greece U19 1+ goals

82%

Greece U19 2+ goals

51%

Greece U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U19 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Greece U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U19 attack 1.27 + Greece U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Greece U19 attack 1.67 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Switzerland U19 scores more

27%

level

24%

Greece U19 scores more

49%

Greece U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Greece U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

N. Spyrakos

34'

Z. Tsikos

45+1'

L. Ndema Mbongue

53'

G. E. Wicht N.

62'

E. Gebreyesus← A. Dias

62'

L. Chipperfield← N. Wicht

62'

R. Dantas← L. Ndema

63'

V. Nikolaou← D. Keramitsis

72'

F. Crescenti← N. Toggenburger

75'

A. Golfinos← L. Smyrlis

75'

78'

85'

86'

86'

87'

E. Tasiouras← N. Spyrakos

87'

G. Kyriopoulos← G. Koutsias

90'

E. Gebreyesus

Switzerland

Greece

1

Monastirl

2

Georgiadi

4

▼

Keramitsi

21

Alexiou

3

Filon

7

▼

Tsikos

14

Kottas

6

Christou

9

⚽

▼

Koutsias

10

▼

Smyrlis

19

⚽

▼

1

4

19

15

▼

Meyer

6

▼

Wicht

5

Beeli

18

Kaloga

8

▼

Ndema

17

Avdullahu

9

▼

Dias

22

▼

Toggenbur

Manager: F. Gabriele

62'▲E. Gebreyesus←▼A. Dias

62'▲L. Chipperfield←▼N. Wicht

62'▲R. Dantas←▼L. Ndema

72'▲F. Crescenti←▼N. Toggenburger

78'▲R. Guzzo←▼L. Meyer

Switzerland U19 substitutes

11Gebreyesus10Chipperfield7Dantas14Crescenti3Guzzo12Bajrami20Hajoubi23Buljan2Näf

Manager: T. Theos

63'▲V. Nikolaou←▼D. Keramitsis

75'▲A. Golfinos←▼L. Smyrlis

75'▲K. Goumas←▼Z. Tsikos

87'▲E. Tasiouras←▼N. Spyrakos

87'▲G. Kyriopoulos←▼G. Koutsias

Greece U19 substitutes

8Nikolaou18Golfinos17Goumas20Tasiouras11Kyriopoulos16Volakis12Botis5Chatzikyriakos15Kaperdas

Match Recap: Switzerland U19 vs Greece U19

Greece U19 beat Switzerland U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 21, 2022.

Goals: N. Spyrakos (21'), G. Koutsias (85').

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.

Switzerland U19 vs Greece U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Switzerland U19 vs Greece U19