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Switzerland U18 vs Morocco U17 — Friendlies 2026

Switzerland U18
Switzerland U18
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Morocco U17
Morocco U17
10/29/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Switzerland U1822%
×Draw22%
Morocco U1756%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland U18
1.17
Morocco U17
2.00

Morocco U17 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Switzerland U18
1.33
Morocco U17
2.00

allows per match

Switzerland U18
2.00
Morocco U17
1.00

finishing

Switzerland U18+0.00on par
Morocco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U18 ↓

Morocco U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Switzerland U18 or draw
44%
Switzerland U18 or Morocco U17
78%
Draw or Morocco U17
78%

Winning margin

Switzerland U18 wins by 2+
9%
Morocco U17 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Switzerland U18 1+ goals
69%
Switzerland U18 2+ goals
33%
Switzerland U18 3+ goals
11%
Morocco U17 1+ goals
86%
Morocco U17 2+ goals
59%
Morocco U17 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U18 (draw refunded)
28%
Morocco U17 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U18 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Morocco U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U18 attack 1.33 + Morocco U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Morocco U17 attack 2.00 + Switzerland U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Switzerland U18 scores more
22%
level
22%
Morocco U17 scores more
56%

Morocco U17 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Morocco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Switzerland U18 vs Morocco U17

Morocco U17 beat Switzerland U18 2-0 in Friendlies on October 29, 2025.