Switzerland U17 W 2–3 Japan U17: Result & Stats

Switzerland U17 W

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Japan U17

G. Nein 90', 47'

N. Kurita 53'

H. Matsuhita 35'

R. Sumiya 28'

1/24/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Switzerland U17 W8%

×Draw12%

Japan U1780%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland U17 WExpected goals in this matchJapan U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

3.08

Switzerland U17 W

0.88

Japan U17

3.08

Japan U17 creates 250% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

3.67

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Switzerland U17 W

1.00

Japan U17

2.50

allows per match

Switzerland U17 W

3.67

Japan U17

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland U17 W+0.00on par

Japan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U17 W ↓

Japan U17 →

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–310%

0–47%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Switzerland U17 W or draw

20%

Switzerland U17 W or Japan U17

88%

Draw or Japan U17

92%

Winning margin

Switzerland U17 W wins by 2+

Japan U17 wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Switzerland U17 W 1+ goals

59%

Switzerland U17 W 2+ goals

22%

Switzerland U17 W 3+ goals

Japan U17 1+ goals

95%

Japan U17 2+ goals

81%

Japan U17 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U17 W (draw refunded)

Japan U17 (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U17 W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Japan U17 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U17 W attack 1.00 + Japan U17 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Japan U17 attack 2.50 + Switzerland U17 W defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Switzerland U17 W scores more

level

12%

Japan U17 scores more

80%

Japan U17 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Japan U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

35'

47'

53'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Switzerland U17 W vs Japan U17

Japan U17 beat Switzerland U17 W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on January 24, 2026.

Goals: R. Sumiya (28'), H. Matsuhita (35'), G. Nein (47', 90'), N. Kurita (53').

Switzerland U17 W vs Japan U17 — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Switzerland U17 W vs Japan U17