Switzerland U17 0–2 Serbia U17: Result & Stats

Switzerland U17

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Serbia U17

3/31/2026

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Switzerland U1740%

×Draw23%

Serbia U1737%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland U17Expected goals in this matchSerbia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.57

Switzerland U17

1.64

Serbia U17

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

2.11

creates per match

2.25

0.89

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Switzerland U17

2.11

Serbia U17

2.25

allows per match

Switzerland U17

0.89

Serbia U17

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland U17+0.00on par

Serbia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U17 ↓

Serbia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Switzerland U17 or draw

63%

Switzerland U17 or Serbia U17

77%

Draw or Serbia U17

60%

Winning margin

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+

20%

Serbia U17 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Switzerland U17 1+ goals

81%

Switzerland U17 2+ goals

49%

Switzerland U17 3+ goals

23%

Serbia U17 1+ goals

79%

Serbia U17 2+ goals

46%

Serbia U17 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)

52%

Serbia U17 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U17 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Serbia U17 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U17 attack 2.11 + Serbia U17 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.64

Serbia U17 attack 2.25 + Switzerland U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Switzerland U17 scores more

40%

level

23%

Serbia U17 scores more

37%

Switzerland U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff