Switzerland U17 4–0 Moldova U17: Result & Stats

Switzerland U17

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Moldova U17

10/23/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 1Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Switzerland U1765%

×Draw21%

Moldova U1714%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland U17Expected goals in this matchMoldova U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.81

Switzerland U17

1.99

Moldova U17

0.81

Switzerland U17 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

2.11

creates per match

0.73

0.89

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Switzerland U17

2.11

Moldova U17

0.73

allows per match

Switzerland U17

0.89

Moldova U17

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland U17+0.00on par

Moldova U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U17 ↓

Moldova U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Switzerland U17 or draw

86%

Switzerland U17 or Moldova U17

79%

Draw or Moldova U17

35%

Winning margin

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+

40%

Moldova U17 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Switzerland U17 1+ goals

86%

Switzerland U17 2+ goals

59%

Switzerland U17 3+ goals

32%

Moldova U17 1+ goals

56%

Moldova U17 2+ goals

19%

Moldova U17 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)

82%

Moldova U17 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U17 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Moldova U17 away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U17 attack 2.11 + Moldova U17 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.99

Moldova U17 attack 0.73 + Switzerland U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Switzerland U17 scores more

65%

level

21%

Moldova U17 scores more

14%

Switzerland U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff