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Switzerland U17 vs Gibraltar U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Switzerland U17
Switzerland U17
FT
7 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gibraltar U17
Gibraltar U17
10/10/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Switzerland U1795%
×Draw4%
Gibraltar U171%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland U17
4.55
Gibraltar U17
0.49

Switzerland U17 creates 829% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Switzerland U17
2.11
Gibraltar U17
0.10

allows per match

Switzerland U17
0.89
Gibraltar U17
7.00

finishing

Switzerland U17+0.00on par
Gibraltar U17+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U17 ↓

Gibraltar U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Switzerland U17 or draw
99%
Switzerland U17 or Gibraltar U17
96%
Draw or Gibraltar U17
5%

Winning margin

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+
86%
Gibraltar U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Switzerland U17 1+ goals
99%
Switzerland U17 2+ goals
93%
Switzerland U17 3+ goals
80%
Gibraltar U17 1+ goals
39%
Gibraltar U17 2+ goals
9%
Gibraltar U17 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)
99%
Gibraltar U17 (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U17 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Gibraltar U17 away — creates 0.10, concedes 7.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U17 attack 2.11 + Gibraltar U17 defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 4.55

Gibraltar U17 attack 0.10 + Switzerland U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Switzerland U17 scores more
95%
level
4%
Gibraltar U17 scores more
1%

Switzerland U17 at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Switzerland U17 7–0 Gibraltar U17

Switzerland U17 beat Gibraltar U17 7-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.