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Switzerland U17 vs Armenia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Switzerland U17
Switzerland U17
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Armenia U17
Armenia U17
10/14/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Mardyke Leisure Centre Grass Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Switzerland U1783%
×Draw11%
Armenia U175%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland U17
2.92
Armenia U17
0.61

Switzerland U17 creates 379% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Switzerland U17
2.11
Armenia U17
0.33

allows per match

Switzerland U17
0.89
Armenia U17
3.73

finishing

Switzerland U17+0.00on par
Armenia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U17 ↓

Armenia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Switzerland U17 or draw
95%
Switzerland U17 or Armenia U17
89%
Draw or Armenia U17
17%

Winning margin

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+
64%
Armenia U17 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Switzerland U17 1+ goals
94%
Switzerland U17 2+ goals
78%
Switzerland U17 3+ goals
55%
Armenia U17 1+ goals
46%
Armenia U17 2+ goals
13%
Armenia U17 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)
94%
Armenia U17 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U17 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Armenia U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U17 attack 2.11 + Armenia U17 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.92

Armenia U17 attack 0.33 + Switzerland U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Switzerland U17 scores more
83%
level
11%
Armenia U17 scores more
5%

Switzerland U17 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Switzerland U17 vs Armenia U17

Switzerland U17 beat Armenia U17 5-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Mardyke Leisure Centre Grass Field in Cork.