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Switzerland U17 vs Albania U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Switzerland U17
Switzerland U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Albania U17
Albania U17
3/25/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Air Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Switzerland U1769%
×Draw18%
Albania U1714%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland U17
2.41
Albania U17
0.98

Switzerland U17 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Switzerland U17
2.11
Albania U17
1.07

allows per match

Switzerland U17
0.89
Albania U17
2.71

finishing

Switzerland U17+0.00on par
Albania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U17 ↓

Albania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Switzerland U17 or draw
86%
Switzerland U17 or Albania U17
82%
Draw or Albania U17
31%

Winning margin

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+
46%
Albania U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Switzerland U17 1+ goals
91%
Switzerland U17 2+ goals
69%
Switzerland U17 3+ goals
43%
Albania U17 1+ goals
62%
Albania U17 2+ goals
26%
Albania U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)
83%
Albania U17 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U17 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Albania U17 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U17 attack 2.11 + Albania U17 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.41

Albania U17 attack 1.07 + Switzerland U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Switzerland U17 scores more
69%
level
18%
Albania U17 scores more
14%

Switzerland U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Switzerland U17 1–1 Albania U17

Switzerland U17 and Albania U17 drew 1-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana.